Winning an MMA fight
INTRODUCTION
I have always taken a fond interest in how data is being used to influence success across all sports. My most recent role here at Ethos Performance has provided me with the opportunity to work with some of the best upcoming MMA fighters in Sydney. I admit, I am still fresh to the fight game. To better understand the sport, I was curious to see what performance indicators were associated with winning in MMA. I encountered 2 papers by James and colleagues which investigated the evolution of tactical strategy in MMA [2] as performance characteristics dictating wins in MMA [2]. They acquired data from FightMetric which are the official company responsible for data collection during bouts in the UFC.
FIGHT STATISTICS
Contrary to what might be common belief, victory at the elite level of MMA is not impacted by the volume of offensive moves (metrics pertaining to attempts) such as distance strikes, ground strikes and takedowns. To maximise the chances of victory, the fighter should aim to be accurate and precise with their actions in the octagon (metrics pertaining to landing).
Particular attention should be brought towards the “significant ground strikes landed” metric. Amazingly, a single execution of this metric (n >=1) will result in a 77-79% chance of victory [1] in a short duration fight (<=3 rounds) [2]. Unlike stand up striking, the extent of damage from ground strikes is primarily dependent on a fighter gaining a dominant position on top of an opponent rather than the technique of the ground strike. This indicates that fighters that are well versed in the ground game may have a significant advantage to other competitors.
Furthermore, changes to a fighter’s strategy are apparent as a bout progresses. An interesting observation was that winners tended to exhibit reduced “Significant Distance Strike Accuracy” whilst losers increased “Significant Distance Strike Accuracy” as fights progressed beyond 10 minutes [2]. Therefore, this metric may not be as significant in the later rounds of a fight with fatigue impacting the accuracy of these strikes. Additionally, fights that enter a 3rd round (>10 minutes) show a reduced number of “significant ground strikes landed” even though Takedown frequency is maintained or increased [2]. This may be an indication of conservative offensive grappling tactics to maintain a dominant position in the final stages of a bout.
Figure adapted from James et al., 2019. MMA Fight KPIs as a function of time. Blue dots represent winners. Red dots represent losers. Differences between blue and red dots represents differences between winners and losers at that specific time of the fight.
Although there has been a shift in strategy since the early days of MMA (increased frequency of stand-up striking) what remains constant to victory is precision striking, especially in the early stages of a bout, and offensive grappling throughout the duration of a bout [2]. Looking at this from an energy system development perspective, anaerobic power may be useful precision striking whilst anaerobic capacity might be more useful for offensive grappling.
From a strength training perspective, this information shows the need for mixed martial artists to possess and express high levels of lower body strength and power to prepare influential actions of a grappling exchange such as takedowns and ground control which are significant determinants to the winning outcome of a fight. Perhaps this could be why an elite grappler like Khabib Nurmagomedov has been so successful in the UFC. However, with striking dominant fighters becoming more aware of how to defend grappling exchanges, fighters must not neglect the physical qualities that go into precision striking either. Physical qualities which underpin punching and kicking like rotational strength & general power should be utilised within a strength and conditioning program.
Image from: https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2019/9/6/20829035/wrestling-for-mma-khabib-nurmagomedov
LIMITATIONS TO FINDINGS
The main limitations from these studies are that they do not consider the impact of weight divisions. It is entirely possible that the patterns highlighted may not hold true when specific weight divisions are faceted. For instance, welterweight and lightweight fighters may require a more complete skillset of multiple combat sports compared to heavyweight of light heavyweight who utilize minimal grappling and are more striking dominant [3]. Additionally, there has yet to be any research conducted on female MMA athletes.
Figure adapted from https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/94kuny/the_distribution_of_ufc_fight_outcomes_oc/
CONCLUSION
This information can be extremely valuable to physical preparation coaches working with MMA fighters. Like with many sports, strength and conditioning only forms a small piece of the puzzle to the athlete’s success. However, our impact can be greater if we are able to translate these fight statistics into performance characteristics. The sport is also constantly evolving and there is no doubt that the methods used to prepare MMA fighters physically will evolve too.
REFERENCES
James, LP.; Robertson, S; Haff, G.G; Beckman, EM.; Kelly, VG. (2017). Identifying the performance characteristics of a winning outcome in elite mixed martial arts competition. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. 20 (3), 296-301
James LP; Sweeting AJ; Kelly VG; Robertson S. (2019). Longitudinal Analysis of Tactical Strategy in the Men’s Division of the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence. 2:29.
Kirk, C; Clark, DR; Langan-Evans, C; Morton, JP (2020). The physical demands of mixed martial arts: A narrative review using the ARMSS model to provide a hierarchy of evidence. Journal of Sports Sciences, 1–23.